Work in Progress:
Embracing the Future: Tense patterns and Forward-looking Monetary Policy (with Gavin Hassall). Slides available on request, draft coming soon.
"This paper studies how forward-looking information in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes affects market expectations of future interest rates. We analyse the text data of the FOMC minutes with structural topic modelling combined with tone and tense analysis through large language models, and estimate market reactions in an event study. We show that forward-looking information about certain topics has systematically moved private sector's expectation of future interest rates. For example, over the sample considered, 1997 to 2023, forward-looking information about inflation increases treasury yields and decreased stock prices, showing investors anticipate tighter policy when inflation is discussed with a future orientation. Thus, the effectiveness of communication depends not only on what topics the committee discusses but also on how these discussions are framed in relation to the future. We explain our findings in a model where central bank communication reveals how strongly the central bank reacts to future economic conditions, which in-turn affects private sector expectations of future interest rates."
New Neighbours: The Effects of Corporate Relocation on Local Labour Market Expectations (with Christine Braun and Bernhard Schmidpeter).
Policy work:
Growing British – a strategy paper for promoting fresh produce production in the UK (Annex 1-Economic calculations for GDP and employment) (with Thijs Van Rens)
Presentations:
Warwick PhD Conference, University of Warwick, 2025
PhD Economics Virtual Seminar Series (PhD-EVS, online), 2025
RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, TU University Dortmund, 2025
Royal Economics Society PhD Conference, University of Portsmouth, 2024
ECONDAT Conference on "Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing for Macroeconomics", Bank of Italy, Rome, 2024
Tor Vergata PhD Conference, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 2024
Text-as-data in Economics Workshop, University of Liverpool, 2024
Royal Economics Society Annual Conference, Queen's University Belfast, 2024
Monash-Warwick-Zurich Text-as-Data Workshop, 2022