Work in Progress:
Embracing the Future: Tense patterns and Forward-looking Monetary Policy (with Gavin Hassall). Slides available on request, draft coming soon.
"This paper examines how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) uses forward-looking language across different topics to communicate monetary policy. Using Structural Topic Modeling combined with tone and tense analysis through Large Language Models, we analyse FOMC minutes and estimate market reactions through high-frequency regressions. We develop a theoretical model of imperfect information that explains why markets react to communications beyond interest rate decisions, as news about how the central bank reacts to its own inflation expectations make private sector agents revise their interest rate expectations. Our empirical analysis shows that forward-looking discussions about Inflation increase treasury yields while decreasing equity prices, suggesting markets anticipate tighter policy when inflation is discussed with a future orientation. On the other hand, forward-looking discussions about Monetary Policy decrease treasury yields, indicating that explicit forward guidance signals more accommodative conditions. These findings highlight how the effectiveness of communication depends not only on what topics the committee discusses but also on how these discussions are framed in relation to the future."
New Neighbours: The Effects of Corporate Relocation on Local Labour Market Expectations (with Christine Braun and Bernhard Schmidpeter).
Does non economic news matter? The role of the Fourth Power in driving consumer confidence.
Policy work:
Growing British – a strategy paper for promoting fresh produce production in the UK (Annex 1-Economic calculations for GDP and employment) (with Thijs Van Rens)
Presentations:
Warwick PhD Conference, University of Warwick, 2025
PhD Economics Virtual Seminar Series (PhD-EVS, online), 2025
RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, TU University Dortmund, 2025
Royal Economics Society PhD Conference, University of Portsmouth, 2024
ECONDAT Conference on "Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing for Macroeconomics", Bank of Italy, Rome, 2024
Tor Vergata PhD Conference, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 2024
Text-as-data in Economics Workshop, University of Liverpool, 2024
Royal Economics Society Annual Conference, Queen's University Belfast, 2024
Monash-Warwick-Zurich Text-as-Data Workshop, 2022