Working Papers:
Embracing the Future: Tense patterns and Forward-looking Central Bank Communication (with Gavin Hassall).
"This paper studies how forward-looking information in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes affects market expectations of future interest rates. We analyse the text data of the FOMC minutes with structural topic modelling combined with tone and tense analysis through large language models, and estimate market reactions in an event study. We show that forward-looking information about certain topics has systematically moved private sector's expectation of future interest rates. For example, on average from 1997 to 2023, discussions of forward-looking inflation was more hawkish than markets predicted from previous communications. We argue the effectiveness of communication depends not only on what topics are communicated but importantly on how these discussions are framed in relation to the future. We explain our findings in a model where central bank communication reveals how strongly they are reacting to future economic conditions, which in-turn affects private sector expectations of future interest rates."
Work in progress:
New Neighbours: The Effects of Corporate Relocation on Local Labour Market Expectations (with Christine Braun and Bernhard Schmidpeter).
Policy work:
Growing British – a strategy paper for promoting fresh produce production in the UK (Annex 1-Economic calculations for GDP and employment) (with Thijs Van Rens)